Tag Archives: asx

3 Picks for March

22/3/16

So far its been a dog of a year – not one of those nice happy dogs more like one of those rabid dogs that attacks people and subsequently needs to be put down – with the ASX200 sitting at 5400 at the start of the financial year and currently we are hovering around the 5100 mark which is around a 6% loss for the year so not fun times (especially if you are a BHP shareholder which has lost more than 30% in the same period)

anyways lets have a look at some stocks which have potential

ASX: CLH РCollection House

Collection house are essentially deb collectors

Growth in Government Services Collection centres & Debtor finance business starting

However revenue Growth marginal from existing business

Price has dropped by from high of $ 2.5 to $1.0  effectively dropped by 60% in the last 9 months whilst NPAT has only dropped by 26% and most of that is to do with a one off restructuring cost of $1M

expected Profit this year of $16-17M which is a PE of around 8

Current Price $1.00 – with 8% dividends and possible re rating of 12 PE – The Price Target I have is conservative at $1.40

ASX: IQE – Intueri Education Group

this New Zealand based education group plays in the vocational education space (Hair cutting, beauty therapy, design & arts, IT , Hospitality, Diving, Online education and Cookery)

There were a few incidents which caused the share price to drop from a high of $2.22 to 22c to now sit around 40c – the main incident being an investigation by the serious fraud office in relation to one of the colleges (quantum education group) the other being a fatality in the dive school that happened in 2014

EBITDA Guidance is around $20M for the year with NPAT to be in the range of $5-8M

current mkt cap is 40M

Current Price $0.40 – My price target is in the range of $0.60-0.80 based on a 10 PE with growth and future dividends

ASX: RSG – Resolute

Gold Producer

Half year profit $60 M on track for 100-120M

Lots of Cash ($33m) and gold bullion ($42M) , a AISC (All-in-Sustaining-Cost) of $1250 AUD vs Gold Price of $1500 AUD

significant amounts of Debt paid off by 30 June 2016

significant Gold reserves, Low enterprise value per ounce of Gold

Gold price moving higher in uncertain economy

current Market Price $380M

PE 3.2-3.8

Current price – $0.60 – price target of 1.2-1.8 hinges on the Gold price stability and increase

ASX:TGS – Tiger waiting to pounce?

5/3/15

Corporate Snapshot

Market Cap (as of 5 March 2015): $80M
Share Price: $0.069
Cash @ 31 December $ 21.6 M

Balance Sheet
Assets @ June
21M cash
80M in debtors and Copper Stockpile
PPE – 302 M
Liabilities 200M

200M Net Assets
=$0.17 NTA per share

NPAT (half year) 5.9M = around 11M for full year

PE – Current – 7.2
PE – Fcst – 4 (based on $20M NPAT)

IMHO (In my Honest opinion):
What do they do: – Copper miner
Currently deferring the capex spend
High stockpiles
directors buying up shares
moving to grid power = lower power costs
mining costs of less than 1.7/pound (current price 2.5)

Should be taking in about 50M cashflow but aren’t ?
risks: they need to secure long term finance

Buy this because…: Low cost miner, set to double production, profitable at current low copper prices, directors buying up shares

Type of Buy: Semi Speculative

Monteray Mining Group Ltd – AKA – Norwood systems ASX:MRY or Proposed ASX:NWD

3rd March 2015

Corporate Snapshot

Market Cap (as of 3 March 2015): $2M
Share Price: $0.024
Cash @ 31 December $ 0.5 M

Dividend (last FY) None

Current Yield = None

IMHO (In my Honest opinion):
What:
Monteray Mining – essentially a mining company providing a backdoor listing to a tech co Norwood Systems Pty Ltd
Norwood have an award winning technology call CORONA which is a cloud service platform that reduces roaming expenses for corporate internation travellers while delivering seamless connectivity to their corporate voice telecommunication networks when abroad, its scalable and doesn’t require any downtime to install it
$30 billion market – large corporates
planning on a personal version in 2015
disruptive, seamless, SIMless
Zero corporate capex, minimal Opex implications

what’s the plan
capital raising of $3.8M @ $0.02 =187.5M shares
final sharebase =668M shares @ $0.02 = $13.4M
+ performance shares 150 shares
total diluted $16M

PE 14 based on total diluted = NPAT needed of $1m

should have about $4m in cash

The tech is award winning
they are in 5 continents
they will save big corporates a lot in communication costs
5 patents
Disruptive
500% growth per month
Zero change is required by clients employees
potentially 70% savings for clients phone bills

Cash Balance = $0.004 per share
Net Assets/ Mkt Cap = (will be updated)
NTA = (will be updated

potentially if hits
$50M Mkt Cap = $0.06/share
$100M Mkt Cap = $0.12/share

this is definitely a speculative buy

Rating: Speculative Buy

This column is the personal opinion of the writer and does not imply any stock recommendations or offer financial advice. Readers should do further research of their own or talk to their adviser before acting on themes in this article. All prices and analysis at the Date of publication at the top of the post

Maca Limited – Battered Miner with hope – ASX:MLD

2nd March 2015

Corporate Snapshot

Market Cap (as of 2 March 2015): $226 M
Share Price: $1.10
Cash @ 31 December $ 94 M

Dividend (last FY) $0.32 (100% Franked) = $0.45 (Taxable)

Current Yield = 41% ( probably a bit too good to be true)

IMHO:
Maca Limited is a mining and civil construction company
mainly working in Western Australia, although have recently negotiated a large south american contract
heavily leveraged to the mining industry
healthy cash Balance
1.47B work in hand (how much of that will be lost due to the mothballing of mining projects
Profit for HY15 – 33.2
EPS for HY 15.73
Current PE on HY15 figures 7
NPAT Margin = 10%

good safety performance LTI free for last 12 months ( which is great for a mining related company)

Work in Hand
FY 15 – Revenue 611 = expected NPAT = 61 M
FY 16 – Revenue 380 = expected NPAT= 38 M
FY 17 – Revenue 335 = expected NPAT= 34 M

in the current environment, it seems to have been put into the mining bucket with the expectations of bad returns but even if the FY17 Revenue is halved and NPAT is reduced to 17 the expected PE will still be in the range of 13 which is the historic ASX average

Cash Balance = healthy = $0.40 per share
Net Assets/ Mkt Cap = 1.13 (anything above 1 is good)
NTA = 1.07 per share

2 analysts give it a buy rating
http://au.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Maca-MLD.asp

risky as it depends on what sort of closures happen over the next few years
but if you are willing to hold out they look like they have the capacity to bounce back

Rating: Long Term Yield Buy

This column is the personal opinion of the writer and does not imply any stock recommendations or offer financial advice. Readers should do further research of their own or talk to their adviser before acting on themes in this article. All prices and analysis at the Date of publication at the top of the post