ASX:TB8 what’s wrong with this beverage company ??

28/9/17

ASX:TB8

Tianmei Beverage Group Corporation Limited

The Stats

Price $0.185
Mkt Cap ~$44 M (based on 180M shares + 60m in escrow)
Revenue generation: Bottled water in China, product promotion and other related services around the fast moving consumer goods sector

Other Facts

recently IPOed for $0.20 they have not moved much above their IPO price, they have been as low as $0.08.

Balance sheet is healthy, cashed up with virtually no debt

they bought the water treatment plant Qianlifeng they are bottling the water from and are in the process of expansion of that plant to triple its capacity

cash generation for the 6 months to May was $19M putting it on course of a PE of just over 1 !!!

Why Tianmei

Drinking water in China sucks and an emerging middle class wants access to nicer things as evidenced by the major GDP growth of the country in the last 10 years (averaging about 7% which is phenomenal )

Currently only supplys the province of Guangzhou so there is massive room for growth

Already making significant cash flow

distribution channels in stores which can lead to import opportunities in other segments outside bottled water

Risks

Currently either unknown or unloved or doing something dodgy?

risks around contamination of the water plant and constant supply of water .

My Verdict

Probably worth punting for a potential 10 Bagger

 

Disclaimer : 

all writing is my own personal opinion

You should seek professional advice for your own investment decisions

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While I’m on the Gold Bandwagon

26/8/16

Some undervalued Gold Producers

ASX:DRM ASX:RED

I seem to be in some kind of Gold fever

the price of the metal is now in the $ 1330 USD and the AUD is currently buying around 76 US cents, therefore the current AUD gold price is 1740 ish per ounce

we’ve been seeing some dips in the gold price over the last 4 weeks on the speculation that the US febs will raise interest – which would be a bad thing for the gold price as holding gold doesn’t yield any income.

on the back of that I have noticed 2 small cap gold producers drop in Value

ASX:DRM – Doray Minerals

The Stats

Price $0.765
Mkt Cap ~$260 M
Revenue generation: Gold producer

What they do

Produced 80,000 Oz this financial year at Andy Well with costs of $1200 per ounce

Have started producing at Deflector and should be 60,000 Oz

they believe they can achieve Margins of $600 with the current Price of gold

if they can and can achieve their targets of 140,000 oz then they will make somewhere in the order of $84 M
at current Market cap puts them at about 3.09 PE

if we assume they meet targets and will be re-rated to between 8-10 PE (noting the historical ave for the ASX is 15) then they should hit a price of somewhere in the vicinity of $2- 2.50

which on the lower end is a 160% increase on the current price

so might be worth a look

ASX:RED – Red

The Stats

Price $0.12
Mkt Cap ~$100 M
Revenue generation: Gold producer

What they do

Expect to produce 60,000 Oz going forwad with costs of $1200 per ounce

this year they expect to do 80,000 oz @ $1000 per Ounce

If things happen as suggested and if they can and can achieve their targets then they will make somewhere in the order of $56 M this year and $30M not withstanding they are still digging for more

they are also in an interesting jurisdiction in the phillipines and there may be possible risk around geo political instability in the region

at current Market cap puts them at about 3.33 PE on future earnings

if we assume they meet targets and will be re-rated to between 8-10 PE (noting the historical ave for the ASX is 15) then they should hit a price of somewhere in the vicinity of $0.30 -0.36

which at the lower end is a 150% increase on the current price

worth watching

Disclaimer : 

this is my own personal opinion

You should seek professional advice for your own investment decisions

Taking Advantage of the Gold Price

25/8/16

ASX: AYC and ASX: KBL

Currently the fundamentals for the yellow metal seem to be on the uptrend

what with the ultra low interest rates all around the world (including the negative ones) the uncertainty in the European union with some of the not-so-well performing economies of Italy, Spain, Greece etc
The recent Brexit which has left the UK in the land of the unknown
The US with upcoming election and potential president Trump
China Slowing down
Bond prices at record lows

it seems like global growth and the search for yield is driving a lot of dollars into Gold
on top of that the 5 year lows of gold has put it in a position which has made it quite undervalued

Since December the Gold price has shot up 30% and is one of the best performing asset classes on the market

in light of all this a lot of the major Gold producers have increased significantly

there is some value for the smaller gold companies which are entering or have entered the production phase and have market caps which warrant some re-rating

my first pick is ASX:KBL – KBL mining

The Stats

Price $0.003
Mkt Cap ~$8M (fully diluted ~$14M)
Revenue generation: Gold producer
Why

Been producing gold since Sept 15 – ave over last 3 qtrs has been just under 7k oz = ~30k oz per year

current margin at gold prices currently mean they should be generating as much cashflow as their market cap or more

other factors to consider
still need to prove up a large enough resource

catalyst will be if they can keep generating cashflow from the existing reserves and shore up a resource large enough to warrant further mining

speculative buy at current price

my second pick is ASX:AYC – A1 Consolidated Gold

The Stats

Price $0.025
Mkt Cap ~$15M (fully diluted ~$30M)
Revenue generation: Gold producer
Why

Has JORC resource of 500oz +

aiming for 25koz of gold production

have proved the gold production facility is up to standard

Director recently purchased $100k worth of stock

current margin at gold prices currently mean they should be generating as much cashflow as their market cap or more

other factors to consider
still early stages of mining so not a sure thing
catalyst will be if they can keep generating cashflow and operate efficiently at the costs they claim

speculative buy at current price

Disclaimer : 

this is my own personal opinion

You should seek professional advice for your own investment decisions

ASX:PNR – Some Value in there

ASX:PNR

Pantoro

Current share price $0.082
Current Market cap: $47 M
total shares O/S + options = 664
Fully diluted = $55 M

Updated based on announcement to purchase 100% of the nicolson Gold mine

increase Shares by 130M

New fully diluted Mkt Cap based on 794 M shares = 65M

Current mine open in all directions current view is 500k – 750k Oz

Current output = 4500-4700 Oz per month = 54-56K Oz

Cash Costs currently $1200 with focus on getting to $1000

Margin at current AUD gold price of $1700 is around 500 – 700

Current Profit = $27- $ 37 m

Price Target – Conservatively estimated at 20c

if Gold price can increase by 10% price estimate would be around 30c

other things of note

Other tenements in PNG possibly blue sky

Disclaimer : 

this is my own personal opinion

You should seek professional advice for your own investment decisions

 

RSG – Wish I’d Bought more, Although maybe Pantoro (ASX:PNR)

18/4/16

Has rallied 30% since I mentioned it in late March – Now sitting around 80c

Although I am kicking myself as I saw it at 25c in January and thought it would go lower

which in hindsight was a dumb thing to try and time the market and should have started accumulating at around that point as it looked like an undervalued buy

with the Gold price continuing its steady climb – most likely due to the uncertain economy  I think there is still a bit of juice left in the RSG tank to get it to $1 which would be a 4 fold gain from when I first saw it ….Doh

anyways Pantoro

ASX:PNR look like a good gold producer that hasn’t made a significant run – quite speculative

its lows have been around the high 4 c and is sitting around the 9c mark which is around the 50M Mkt cap region

Recent high grade finds have boded well for future production and current quarterly production is in the region of 4000-5000 Oz per quarter = 20 k Oz per year

Cash Costs sit around the $1200 which is good for margins when the AUD gold price is over $1600

the expected initial plan was the 30k oz/yr for the first 4 years which looks to be on target

expected Profit would sit around the $10-12M – which puts the price/earnings between 4-5 which could increase depending upon how the Gold price charts

maybe keep watching

 

 

3 Picks for March

22/3/16

So far its been a dog of a year – not one of those nice happy dogs more like one of those rabid dogs that attacks people and subsequently needs to be put down – with the ASX200 sitting at 5400 at the start of the financial year and currently we are hovering around the 5100 mark which is around a 6% loss for the year so not fun times (especially if you are a BHP shareholder which has lost more than 30% in the same period)

anyways lets have a look at some stocks which have potential

ASX: CLH – Collection House

Collection house are essentially deb collectors

Growth in Government Services Collection centres & Debtor finance business starting

However revenue Growth marginal from existing business

Price has dropped by from high of $ 2.5 to $1.0  effectively dropped by 60% in the last 9 months whilst NPAT has only dropped by 26% and most of that is to do with a one off restructuring cost of $1M

expected Profit this year of $16-17M which is a PE of around 8

Current Price $1.00 – with 8% dividends and possible re rating of 12 PE – The Price Target I have is conservative at $1.40

ASX: IQE – Intueri Education Group

this New Zealand based education group plays in the vocational education space (Hair cutting, beauty therapy, design & arts, IT , Hospitality, Diving, Online education and Cookery)

There were a few incidents which caused the share price to drop from a high of $2.22 to 22c to now sit around 40c – the main incident being an investigation by the serious fraud office in relation to one of the colleges (quantum education group) the other being a fatality in the dive school that happened in 2014

EBITDA Guidance is around $20M for the year with NPAT to be in the range of $5-8M

current mkt cap is 40M

Current Price $0.40 – My price target is in the range of $0.60-0.80 based on a 10 PE with growth and future dividends

ASX: RSG – Resolute

Gold Producer

Half year profit $60 M on track for 100-120M

Lots of Cash ($33m) and gold bullion ($42M) , a AISC (All-in-Sustaining-Cost) of $1250 AUD vs Gold Price of $1500 AUD

significant amounts of Debt paid off by 30 June 2016

significant Gold reserves, Low enterprise value per ounce of Gold

Gold price moving higher in uncertain economy

current Market Price $380M

PE 3.2-3.8

Current price – $0.60 – price target of 1.2-1.8 hinges on the Gold price stability and increase

More Tech Specs

Whilst we are riding this boom of tech specs and reverse takeovers I have come across a few more

ASX: KBU
Design and Home Decor Platform in Canada/USA

ASX: RNT
rent.com.au – rent website
has already doubled in value
ASX: MRR
Soon to be Hello Real Estate an online platform to sell real estate at drastically lower fees
ASX: CYS
Peppermint remittance technology – currently operating in the Philippines, plan for world wide launch – much like ASX:ESV only at a lesser stage

ASX:POK
Soon to be Buddy limited
Buddy Software system – connecting sensors and other data inputs into large ERP software and also onto dashboards etc without the use of any capex

ASX:MSC
Megastar Millionaire – an online talent show via online streaming – selling point is the Americas got Talent is valued at $2.5B

ASX:LCD
Yatango online retailer

ASX:SXT
not sure where this one was at but it was the LPE online electricity retailer which was aiming to grab a share of strata electricity contracts in large buildings
ASX:PZR
soon to be TV2U reverse listing and is planning to sell online streaming tv services to large providers – similar to fetch tv from iinet without the provider having to negotiate content

my picks are ASX:POK & ASX:MRR

As always This column is the personal opinion of the writer and does not imply any stock recommendations or offer financial advice. Readers should do further research of their own or talk to their adviser before acting on themes in this article. All attempts have been made to make sure the accuracy of all prices and analysis at the Date of publication at the top of the post